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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 9

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 19-D.Stevens 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.99 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 9, worth +0.71 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT +0.56 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP