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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 48

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 92-K.Tonga and 64-H.Nourzad reported in as eligible. 92-K.Tonga up the middle to IND 45 for 3 yards (30-H.Wohler).

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.08 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model