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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 50

New York Giants 0 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 15-J.Stout punts 42 yards to LA 8, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-X.Smith to LA 6 for -2 yards (88-M.Fields).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.15 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model