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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 43

New York Giants 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 15-J.Stout punts 33 yards to LA 10, Center-58-B.Mann, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.57 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.23 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.12 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model