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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 51

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(:34) 8-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to KC 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 16 for 6 yards (80-D.Burks; 29-C.Taylor-Britt).

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.04 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 51, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP