Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to DEN 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 31-K.Abrams-Draine MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 13. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 16 for 3 yards (25-R.Lane; 46-R.Matiscik).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.79 EP
62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model