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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 58

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to IND 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.82 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 58, worth -2.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model