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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 7 at the 26
Dallas Cowboys 17 – Washington Commanders 13
What Actually Happened
(7:24) 17-B.Aubrey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
The Three Options
GO
+1.67 EP
-
40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.94 EP
- 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.47 EP
KICK
+1.71 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 88% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
- 12% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT
+0.54 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.54 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
