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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 5

Miami Dolphins 3 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(:02) 47-R.Patterson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.90 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model