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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 28

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.99 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model