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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 10

Miami Dolphins 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 47-R.Patterson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.10 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model