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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 10

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 10, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP