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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 2

Denver Broncos 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 3-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +3.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 2, worth +0.74 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP