4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 33

New York Giants 3 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 34-D.Zvada 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.36 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model