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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 42

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 17-B.Aubrey 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.42 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP