Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 74

Denver Broncos 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(7:22) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 48 yards to JAX 26, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 11-P.Washington to JAX 38 for 12 yards (51-Q.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.20 EP
67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model