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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 52

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 8-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to KC 7, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-N.Remigio to KC 9 for 2 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.74 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 52, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP