Fourth-Down Analyzer
Every 4th-down decision from every game this week, priced in expected points by the same submodels shown on each game's own page, just gathered here one week at a time instead of one game at a time. The objective: see which calls matched what the numbers say and which ones cost the most, across the whole week at a glance.
How It Works → · How the go/kick/punt math works →
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Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 56Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.87 EPp(convert) 76%
(13:44) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
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Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%
(5:41) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EPp(convert) 66%
(4:17) 42-E.Evans punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 12 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%
(14:55) 38-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 50%
(6:57) 12-B.Gillikin punts 36 yards to LA 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
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Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(5:28) 42-E.Evans punts 46 yards to ARI 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 33 for 6 yards (49-J.Cardona).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%
(:49) 38-C.Ryland 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%
(6:29) 38-C.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 27Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73% p(FG) 86%
(2:44) 87-D.Allen up the middle to ARI 27 for no gain (50-J.Gibbens; 1-Ma.Wilson). ARI-97-W.Nolen was injured during the play. ARI-10-J.Sweat was injured during the play.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%
(9:31) 38-C.Ryland 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(7:06) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to LA 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Bachman to LA 28 for 4 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson).
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Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 44 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 53%
(3:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 23-K.Williams.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 55 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(2:58) 12-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to LA 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Bachman to LA 14 for no gain (36-K.Crawford; 59-C.Kreiter).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 25 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 89%
(:03) 38-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%
(8:14) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 85-J.Cuevas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-C.Williams].
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Q1 CLE 4th & 13 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(6:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to BAL 34, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-L.Wester to BAL 39 for 5 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold; 11-M.Corley).
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Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%
(4:40) 33-T.Loop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(1:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to BAL 22, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(14:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 59 yards to CLE 4, impetus ends at CLE 1, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(11:06) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to BAL 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-11-M.Corley.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 76Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EPp(convert) 56%
(9:20) 30-R.Eckley punts 43 yards to CLE 33, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 45%
(6:07) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to BAL 2, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-11-M.Corley.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(1:42) 30-R.Eckley punts 40 yards to CLE 29, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(1:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to BAL 32, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 15 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(:07) 30-R.Eckley punts 52 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 63Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68%
(12:41) 34-M.Burton up the middle to CLE 39 for 2 yards (0-R.Smith; 32-T.Simpson).
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Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 80%
(7:53) 25-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 33%
(4:58) 30-R.Eckley punts 40 yards to CLE 10, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(2:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to BAL 30, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-L.Wester to BAL 40 for 10 yards (42-E.Mascarenas-Arnold).
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Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 79%
(14:18) 33-T.Loop 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(12:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to BAL 23, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 77Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 57%
(7:09) 30-R.Eckley punts 50 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-N.Moore. 1-K.Concepcion pushed ob at CLE 40 for 13 yards (39-K.Jackson).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 29 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%
(3:44) 25-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 59 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(2:08) 30-R.Eckley punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
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Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 88%
(10:16) 16-T.Bass 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(14:48) 16-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
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Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(13:15) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to BUF 11, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 15 for 4 yards (25-D.Luter; 20-I.Pola-Mao).
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Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%
(2:18) 14-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 17 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(1:48) 39-T.Doman punts 44 yards to LV 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.
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Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(14:38) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to BUF 13, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 35 for 22 yards (55-C.Lindenberg).
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Q3 BUF 4th & 12 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 85%
(9:50) 16-T.Bass 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
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Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 99%
(13:35) 14-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(12:03) 39-T.Doman punts 51 yards to LV 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-M.Benson.
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Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 82 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(4:21) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to BUF 25, Center-47-A.Ward. 19-G.Dortch to BUF 36 for 11 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LV-50-S.Olubi, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 36.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 20 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 93%
(2:00) 16-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(13:41) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to CAR 15, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 39 for 24 yards (42-S.Mondon).
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Q1 CAR 4th & 4 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 83%
(10:56) 10-R.Fitzgerald 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 13 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(9:53) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to CAR 26, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne ran ob at CAR 39 for 13 yards (34-C.Steele). PENALTY on CAR-48-T.Incoom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 26.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 12 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(7:05) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to PHI 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.
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Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 55%
(4:00) 10-B.Mann punts 28 yards to CAR 14, Center-41-R.Underwood, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 58Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EPp(convert) 70%
(1:48) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(12:57) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to CAR 18, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne pushed ob at CAR 42 for 24 yards (54-J.Trotter). CAR-48-T.Incoom was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: PHI-34-C.Steele has returned to the game. PENALTY on CAR-81-F.Franks, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 38.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 48%
(10:34) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to PHI 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 88Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 48%
(9:42) 10-B.Mann punts 23 yards to PHI 35, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 74%
(11:37) 10-R.Fitzgerald 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(10:36) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to CAR 29, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 42 for 13 yards (38-C.Wisniewski).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(8:24) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to PHI 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(6:26) 10-B.Mann punts 65 yards to CAR 8, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 80%
(1:03) 73-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to PHI 12 for 19 yards (54-J.Trotter).
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Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(9:46) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to PHI 48, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-81-F.Franks.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 18 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(8:30) 10-B.Mann punts 8 yards to PHI 48, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 17 at the 49 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 27% p(FG) 37%
(4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith (20-Z.Wheatley).
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Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(6:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 63 yards to CHI 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 41 for 23 yards (28-M.Ford; 34-J.Robinson). ATL-34-J.Robinson was injured during the play.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(14:57) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to CHI 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 32 for 14 yards (56-H.Perkins; 23-D.Hellams).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 43%
(12:04) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 55%
(9:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 14-O.Zaccheaus (97-J.Lynch).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 68%
(7:23) 8-C.Santos 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EPp(convert) 73%
(1:52) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to ATL 10, Center-46-S.Daly. 17-Z.Branch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-39-J.Blackwell at ATL 10.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(:56) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to CHI 30, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds. PENALTY on CHI-92-D.Hardy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 30.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 28Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 85%
(10:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (1-J.Johnson) [92-D.Hardy].
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Q3 CHI 4th & 12 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 35%
(6:57) 19-T.Taylor punts 44 yards to ATL 7, Center-46-S.Daly. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 6 for -1 yards (39-J.Blackwell; 30-Z.Scott).
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Q3 ATL 4th & 14 at the 98Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(4:43) 16-J.Bailey punts 67 yards to CHI 31, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 48 for 17 yards (87-N.Muse; 23-D.Hellams).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 32Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 79%
(15:00) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 66Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 36%
(14:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch to ATL 39 for 5 yards (21-C.Lewis) [20-C.Phillips]. Penalty on ATL-65-M.Bergeron, Offensive Holding, declined.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 13 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 58%
(12:19) 19-T.Taylor punts 33 yards to ATL 9, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 77 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(3:47) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to ATL 28, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-46-S.Daly.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 42%
(11:20) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to GB 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-C.Owen.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 12 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(2:46) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to GB 25, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-C.Owen pushed ob at GB 41 for 16 yards (50-S.James).
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Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(6:01) 28-T.Smack 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q3 GB 4th & 17 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(14:01) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to DAL 38, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo ran ob at GB 46 for 16 yards (59-T.Hopper).
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Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61% p(FG) 65%
(12:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to GB 21 for 17 yards (2-B.Cisse).
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Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 50%
(6:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 85-T.Kraft to DAL 30 for 14 yards (13-C.Downs).
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Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 87%
(5:06) 28-T.Smack 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 12 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(3:35) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to GB 6, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-C.Owen.
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Q3 GB 4th & 12 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(1:23) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to DAL 41, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo to DAL 45 for 4 yards (59-T.Hopper; 87-J.Sturdivant). PENALTY on DAL-28-S.Revel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 41.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 34%
(13:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 88-C.Lamb (7-J.Bullard).
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Q4 GB 4th & 8 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%
(10:10) 28-T.Smack 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 23Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 90%
(6:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-R.Flournoy to GB 12 for 11 yards (24-C.Valentine; 7-J.Bullard). PENALTY on DAL-52-T.Booker, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at GB 12.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 14Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%
(5:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Lamb.
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Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 71 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(3:11) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to DAL 20, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-J.Mingo pushed ob at DAL 22 for 2 yards (87-J.Sturdivant).
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Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 53%
(12:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to HOU 6, Center-55-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.
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Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(11:21) 38-K.Kroeger punts 53 yards to JAX 38, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 11-P.Washington to JAX 45 for 7 yards (87-F.Moreau).
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Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 66%
(8:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 11-P.Washington (11-T.Smith).
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Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EPp(convert) 71%
(11:20) 38-K.Kroeger punts 50 yards to JAX 21, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
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Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 7Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.89 EPp(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%
(4:18) 15-K.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 JAX 4th & 7 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(8:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 59 yards to HOU 8, Center-55-J.Bobenmoyer. 13-J.Noel to HOU 16 for 8 yards (31-J.Tavai). PENALTY on HOU-27-K.Ramsey, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 10.
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Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(5:38) 38-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to JAX 31, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 42 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 53%
(2:00) 39-C.Little 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 32 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 77%
(:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.
See the full breakdown →
-
Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 26Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 86%
(11:25) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LAC 4th & 11 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(10:40) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to KC 27, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to KC 33 for 6 yards (53-D.Phillips; 47-J.Harris).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%
(1:38) 11-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 38%
(14:18) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59%
(5:39) 16-J.Scott punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 61%
(:36) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to KC 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 30 for 7 yards (32-K.Williamson; 43-T.Dye).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LAC 4th & 12 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 97%
(10:48) 11-C.Dicker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%
(6:34) 64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left guard to LAC 1 for no gain (92-J.Eboigbe; 58-M.Wax).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LAC 4th & 9 at the 98Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(4:34) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), recovered by KC-45-Ca.Jones at LAC 41. PENALTY on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 37. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to LAC 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 81-N.Remigio to LAC 41 for -4 yards (43-T.Dye). FUMBLES (43-T.Dye), RECOVERED by LAC-50-C.Murphy at LAC 41. Penalty on KC-88-J.Briningstool, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 12 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(2:26) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to KC 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 75Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 60%
(:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to LAC 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-D.Davis to LAC 38 for 21 yards (83-N.Gray; 41-J.Winchester).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 51%
(13:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 84-K.Lambert-Smith to KC 38 for 5 yards (20-N.Williams).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 35Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EPp(convert) 66% p(FG) 71%
(11:51) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 12 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%
(3:56) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LAC 4th & 5 at the 8 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(1:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 82-T.Wease (51-R.Thomas).
See the full breakdown →
-
Q1 NYG 4th & 12 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(14:18) 15-J.Stout punts 44 yards to NO 18, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown ran ob at NO 39 for 21 yards (52-A.Reese).
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Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 44Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 51%
(12:08) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird.
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Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 41%
(8:09) 19-J.Winston left guard to NO 45 for 3 yards (20-P.Werner).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(2:07) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to NYG 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NYG 4th & 16 at the 92Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(:32) 15-J.Stout punts 66 yards to NO 26, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 41 for 15 yards (54-M.Harrison; 46-Z.Barnes).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NO 4th & 12 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(14:20) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to NYG 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 17 for 5 yards (25-D.Richardson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(11:21) 15-J.Stout punts 46 yards to NO 21, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 24 for 3 yards (48-T.Ford).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 69%
(6:56) 10-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYG 4th & 12 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%
(2:30) 34-D.Zvada 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 40Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 62%
(1:23) 10-D.Carlson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%
(:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 18-B.Lance for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(10:44) 15-J.Stout punts 59 yards to NO 25, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown pushed ob at NO 48 for 23 yards (28-E.Campbell).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 32Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 79%
(1:17) 10-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYG 4th & 15 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(15:00) 15-J.Stout punts 56 yards to NO 19, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 25 for 6 yards (46-Z.Barnes; 41-M.McFadden).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EPp(convert) 72%
(12:48) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to NYG 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 39%
(6:03) 17-R.Wright punts 32 yards to NYG 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 27 for 10 yards (36-L.Styles).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 44 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 51%
(4:13) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 40 for 33 yards (43-C.Donaldson). Penalty on NYG-86-T.Fidone, Illegal Blindside Block, declined. PENALTY on NYG-41-M.McFadden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at NYG 16.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 23 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 90%
(2:08) 34-D.Zvada 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 68 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(1:06) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to NYG 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 39 for 9 yards (25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 39.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 14 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EPp(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%
(:12) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely (7-J.Sanker) [99-C.Young]. NO-29-Q.Riley was injured during the play.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 18% p(FG) 90%
(8:21) 19-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 59%
(6:48) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 46 yards to NYJ 20, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 30Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 82%
(14:22) (Shotgun) 0-B.Allen right guard to NE 29 for 1 yard (14-R.Spillane; 53-C.Elliss).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 46%
(11:45) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to NYJ 3, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-49-E.Hunter.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 64%
(7:00) 7-G.Smith up the middle to NE 39 for no gain (50-G.Jacas). (Virtual Measurement).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 52Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74% p(FG) 32%
(5:15) 38-R.Stevenson left tackle to 50 for 2 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 29-M.Fitzpatrick).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 14Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%
(1:49) 8-A.Borregales 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(1:29) 14-A.McNamara punts 41 yards to NE 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 62%
(11:54) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 1-A.Brown (21-B.Stephens).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%
(4:50) 19-J.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 91%
(7:24) 19-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 9 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%
(1:14) 8-A.Borregales 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
See the full breakdown →
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Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 52%
(11:56) 19-C.Johnston punts 30 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.
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Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(11:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to PIT 42, Center-86-E.Deckers. 10-K.Wetjen pushed ob at TB 44 for 14 yards (29-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on PIT-40-D.Slaughter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 46.
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Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 87%
(7:55) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PIT 4th & 3 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 52%
(3:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to TB 40 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby) [23-T.Smith].
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 62%
(13:15) 19-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to TB 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Johnson to TB 21 for 8 yards (21-T.Homer). PENALTY on TB-38-K.Knowles, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at TB 13.
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Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(11:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to PIT 34, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 30Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 80%
(7:15) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TB 4th & 11 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%
(4:12) 4-C.McLaughlin 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(1:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to PIT 27, Center-86-E.Deckers. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 23 for -4 yards (19-K.Johnson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(14:18) 19-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to TB 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-28-R.Spears-Jennings.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TB 4th & 12 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%
(5:05) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(3:26) 19-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 25 for 13 yards (51-N.Herbig).
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Q3 TB 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(2:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to PIT 32, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PIT 4th & 19 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 91%
(8:11) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(7:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to PIT 23, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 40 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 57%
(2:00) 9-C.Boswell 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 1 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.87 EPp(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%
(1:23) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 35 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 70%
(:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
See the full breakdown →
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Q1 SEA 4th & 16 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 28%
(10:06) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to DEN 10, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(8:36) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 43 yards to SEA 45, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SEA 4th & 5 at the 37Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 64%
(6:35) 5-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 48Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 35%
(3:46) (Shotgun) 28-T.Badie up the middle to SEA 42 for 6 yards (13-E.Jones).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 43%
(9:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 24 yards to DEN 21, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(1:49) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 49 yards to SEA 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SEA 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63%
(:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to DEN 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DEN 4th & 11 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(12:51) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 40 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SEA 4th & 12 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 81%
(8:34) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DEN 4th & 6 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(7:55) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to SEA 7, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 15-T.Horton ran ob at SEA 20 for 13 yards (26-D.Key).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SEA 4th & 19 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(3:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 58 yards to DEN 9, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-M.Mims to DEN 26 for 17 yards (46-J.Ciarlo; 81-E.Saubert). PENALTY on DEN-37-S.Fresch, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(1:54) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to SEA 34, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 30 for -4 yards (46-A.Prentice). PENALTY on SEA-52-P.O'Connell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 34.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 18 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 40%
(12:58) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to DEN 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(9:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 50 yards to SEA 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 33 for 8 yards (34-J.Skinner).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 59%
(7:50) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to DEN 32 for 7 yards (23-J.Barron).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DEN 4th & 20 at the 82 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(3:31) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 56 yards to SEA 26, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 67 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(1:10) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to SEA 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 22-R.Shaheed pushed ob at SEA 46 for 31 yards (16-J.Crawshaw).
See the full breakdown →
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Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 41%
(9:44) 3-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to IND 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 6-A.Gould.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 85Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EPp(convert) 73%
(15:00) 3-T.Townsend punts 64 yards to IND 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-A.Gould to IND 30 for 9 yards (38-T.Burgess; 56-T.Jones).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 57Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EPp(convert) 70%
(8:49) 3-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
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Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%
(2:09) 3-S.Shrader 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 82%
(:15) 3-S.Shrader 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%
(13:33) 6-J.Slye 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
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Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 59% p(FG) 54%
(10:18) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs to TEN 38 for 4 yards (26-M.Harris).
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Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 64%
(3:26) 6-J.Slye 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
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Q4 IND 4th & 17 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(15:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to TEN 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 17-C.Dike to IND 28 for 58 yards (34-K.Gushiken).
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Q4 IND 4th & 12 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(10:25) 8-R.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by 36-J.Chestnut, Center-46-L.Rhodes, RECOVERED by TEN-7-O.Oladejo at IND 14. 7-O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-8-R.Sanchez was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 31 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 79%
(2:07) 6-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
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Q4 IND 4th & 17 at the 69 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.66 EPp(convert) 28%
(1:07) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 13-L.Treadwell (53-A.Hill).
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Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 26 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 86%
(:47) 6-J.Slye 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.
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Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 46 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EPp(convert) 33% p(FG) 43%
(:04) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right (26-M.Harris).
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Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 33Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 75%
(8:53) 19-D.Stevens 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 97%
(5:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left tackle to WAS 4 for 7 yards (56-K.Medrano; 39-J.Reaves).
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Q1 WAS 4th & 15 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(1:39) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to SF 6, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-J.Cowing MUFFS catch, and recovers at SF 2. 4-J.Cowing to SF 4 for 2 yards (18-T.Owens).
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Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 89Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 61%
(:45) 15-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to WAS 41, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%
(13:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right. Penalty on WAS-1-R.White, Illegal Shift, declined.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 11 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(6:34) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to SF 31, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing.
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Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%
(:49) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to WAS 1 for 2 yards (96-S.Tuttle).
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Q3 WAS 4th & 20 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(12:09) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to SF 16, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing. PENALTY on WAS-18-T.Owens, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SF 16.
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Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 14Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 96%
(6:01) 18-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 79%
(2:50) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 3-S.Diggs pushed ob at SF 18 for 13 yards (20-U.Stout).
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Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(14:14) 15-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-L.McCaffrey MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SF-41-J.Graham at WAS 20. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 15-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to WAS 20, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-41-J.Graham.
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Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(7:53) 15-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to WAS 22, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 17 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 94%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to 13-T.Burks (6-M.Mustapha).
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Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 80 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(1:00) 15-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to WAS 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-L.McCaffrey. PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.
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