Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 74

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

(13:41) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to CAR 15, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 39 for 24 yards (42-S.Mondon).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.52 EP
63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model