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Carolina Panthers

3-2 HC Dave Canales
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

2-4 HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 13:00 ET Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

CAR
47.7%
PHI
52.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.006 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • CAR on 7 more days rest than PHI
  • CAR offense: -0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Bryce Young (CAR): +0.111 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CAR 21 14–28
–
PHI 23 16–30
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

CAR

AJ Dillon RB Out Ankle
Monroe Freeling T Doubtful Knee
Taylor Moton T Questionable Lung
Tershawn Wharton DT Questionable Neck
Damien Lewis G Questionable Elbow
Jaelan Phillips LB Questionable Hamstring
Trevor Etienne RB Questionable Ankle

PHI

Saquon Barkley RB Out Hamstring
Jalen Hurts QB Out Calf
Michael Carter II S Out Abdomen
Landon Dickerson G Out Knee
Grant Calcaterra TE Out Back
Jakorian Bennett CB Out Knee
Jalyx Hunt LB Out Knee
Will Shipley RB Out Foot
Eli Stowers TE Out Quadricep
A.J. Epenesa LB Doubtful Back
Drew Kendall C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 25
–
PHI 14

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:56 FG CAR (10:56) 10-R.Fitzgerald 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 3 – PHI 0
  • Q2 08:14 TD CAR (8:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – PHI 0
  • Q2 02:47 TD PHI (2:47) (Shotgun) 39-D.Pierce up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – PHI 6
  • Q3 11:37 FG CAR (11:37) 10-R.Fitzgerald 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 13 – PHI 7
  • Q4 13:39 TD CAR (13:39) 30-C.Hubbard left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 19 – PHI 7
  • Q4 10:48 TD PHI (10:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 19 – PHI 13
  • Q4 06:39 TD CAR (6:39) 9-B.Young pass deep middle to 82-T.Tremble for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-82-T.Tremble, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CAR 25 – PHI 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:41) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to CAR 15, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 39 for 24 yards (42-S.Mondon).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CAR 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 83%

    (10:56) 10-R.Fitzgerald 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PHI 4th & 13 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:53) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to CAR 26, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne ran ob at CAR 39 for 13 yards (34-C.Steele). PENALTY on CAR-48-T.Incoom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 26.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CAR 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:05) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to PHI 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 55%

    (4:00) 10-B.Mann punts 28 yards to CAR 14, Center-41-R.Underwood, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:48) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:57) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to CAR 18, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne pushed ob at CAR 42 for 24 yards (54-J.Trotter). CAR-48-T.Incoom was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: PHI-34-C.Steele has returned to the game. PENALTY on CAR-81-F.Franks, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 38.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 48%

    (10:34) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to PHI 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (9:42) 10-B.Mann punts 23 yards to PHI 35, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 74%

    (11:37) 10-R.Fitzgerald 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:36) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to CAR 29, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 42 for 13 yards (38-C.Wisniewski).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:24) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to PHI 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:26) 10-B.Mann punts 65 yards to CAR 8, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 80%

    (1:03) 73-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to PHI 12 for 19 yards (54-J.Trotter).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:46) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to PHI 48, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-81-F.Franks.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PHI 4th & 18 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:30) 10-B.Mann punts 8 yards to PHI 48, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PHI 4th & 17 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 37%

    (4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith (20-Z.Wheatley).

    See the full breakdown →