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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 88

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 10-B.Mann punts 23 yards to PHI 35, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.04 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 88, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP