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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 54

Carolina Panthers 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to PHI 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.82 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model