Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 87

Carolina Panthers 19 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(9:46) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to PHI 48, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-81-F.Franks.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.90 EP
60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 87, worth -5.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model