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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 42

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 10-B.Mann punts 28 yards to CAR 14, Center-41-R.Underwood, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.03 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model