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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 45

Carolina Panthers 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 6-S.Martin punts 37 yards to PHI 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.57 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model