4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 31

Carolina Panthers 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 73-S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard left tackle to PHI 12 for 19 yards (54-J.Trotter).

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.88 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model