Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to CAR 18, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne pushed ob at CAR 42 for 24 yards (54-J.Trotter). CAR-48-T.Incoom was injured during the play. ** Injury Update: PHI-34-C.Steele has returned to the game. PENALTY on CAR-81-F.Franks, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 38.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.34 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model