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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Carolina Panthers 25

What Actually Happened

(4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.McKee pass incomplete deep right to 6-D.Smith (20-Z.Wheatley).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.43 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP