Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(7:05) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to PHI 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.46 EP
69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model