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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 29

Carolina Panthers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 10-R.Fitzgerald 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.14 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model