Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 81

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to CAR 26, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne ran ob at CAR 39 for 13 yards (34-C.Steele). PENALTY on CAR-48-T.Incoom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.83 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model