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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 73

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 10-B.Mann punts 65 yards to CAR 8, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.12 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model