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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 34

Carolina Panthers 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 10-R.Fitzgerald 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.36 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model