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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to CAR 29, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 42 for 13 yards (38-C.Wisniewski).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model