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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Carolina Panthers 19

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 10-B.Mann punts 8 yards to PHI 48, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model