Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 34 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to NYG 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 39 for 9 yards (25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 39.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.36 EP
44% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 68, worth -2.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model