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New Orleans Saints

2-4 HC Kellen Moore
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New York Giants

3-2-1 HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 13:00 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

NO
42.1%
NYG
57.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Jameis Winston (NYG): -0.075 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO offense: -0.011 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.173 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NO 24 17–31
–
NYG 25 18–32
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 49

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

NO

Kaden Elliss LB Out Calf
Anfernee Jennings LB Out Knee
Zach Wood LS Questionable Calf
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Back
Nathan Shepherd DT Questionable Illness
Chris Olave WR Questionable Illness
Lorenzo Styles Jr. CB Questionable Knee

NYG

Theo Johnson TE Out Neck
Tyler Nubin S Out Neck
Colton Hood CB Out Concussion
Jermaine Eluemunor T Questionable Calf
Andrew Thomas T Questionable Groin
Abdul Carter LB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 34
–
NYG 27

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:23 TD NYG (5:23) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 29-T.Tracy for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan]. NO 0 – NYG 6
  • Q2 02:30 FG NYG (2:30) 34-D.Zvada 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. NO 0 – NYG 10
  • Q2 01:23 FG NO (1:23) 10-D.Carlson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright. NO 3 – NYG 10
  • Q2 00:05 TD NO (:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 18-B.Lance for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – NYG 10
  • Q3 12:31 TD NO (12:31) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – NYG 10
  • Q3 05:48 TD NO (5:48) 6-T.Shough up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 23 – NYG 10
  • Q3 01:17 FG NO (1:17) 10-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright. NO 27 – NYG 10
  • Q4 11:36 TD NO (11:36) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 33 – NYG 10
  • Q4 07:04 TD NYG (7:04) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 34 – NYG 16
  • Q4 05:11 TD NYG (5:11) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 9-I.Likely for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 34 – NYG 24
  • Q4 02:08 FG NYG (2:08) 34-D.Zvada 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. NO 34 – NYG 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 12 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:18) 15-J.Stout punts 44 yards to NO 18, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown ran ob at NO 39 for 21 yards (52-A.Reese).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 51%

    (12:08) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 41%

    (8:09) 19-J.Winston left guard to NO 45 for 3 yards (20-P.Werner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:07) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to NYG 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 16 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:32) 15-J.Stout punts 66 yards to NO 26, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 41 for 15 yards (54-M.Harrison; 46-Z.Barnes).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:20) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to NYG 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 17 for 5 yards (25-D.Richardson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:21) 15-J.Stout punts 46 yards to NO 21, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 24 for 3 yards (48-T.Ford).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 69%

    (6:56) 10-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 12 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (2:30) 34-D.Zvada 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 62%

    (1:23) 10-D.Carlson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 18-B.Lance for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:44) 15-J.Stout punts 59 yards to NO 25, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown pushed ob at NO 48 for 23 yards (28-E.Campbell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 79%

    (1:17) 10-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (15:00) 15-J.Stout punts 56 yards to NO 19, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 25 for 6 yards (46-Z.Barnes; 41-M.McFadden).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (12:48) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to NYG 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 39%

    (6:03) 17-R.Wright punts 32 yards to NYG 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 27 for 10 yards (36-L.Styles).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 51%

    (4:13) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 40 for 33 yards (43-C.Donaldson). Penalty on NYG-86-T.Fidone, Illegal Blindside Block, declined. PENALTY on NYG-41-M.McFadden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at NYG 16.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 90%

    (2:08) 34-D.Zvada 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:06) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to NYG 30, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 39 for 9 yards (25-D.Richardson). PENALTY on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 39.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (:12) (Shotgun) 18-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to 9-I.Likely (7-J.Sanker) [99-C.Young]. NO-29-Q.Riley was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →