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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 27 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to NYG 18, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 24, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP