Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 7

(14:20) 17-R.Wright punts 49 yards to NYG 12, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones to NYG 17 for 5 yards (25-D.Richardson).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 61, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model