Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 67

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 7

(2:07) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to NYG 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 89-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.94 EP
63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model