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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 44

New Orleans Saints 34 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 40 for 33 yards (43-C.Donaldson). Penalty on NYG-86-T.Fidone, Illegal Blindside Block, declined. PENALTY on NYG-41-M.McFadden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at NYG 16.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.03 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP