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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 67

New York Giants 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 15-J.Stout punts 46 yards to NO 21, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 24 for 3 yards (48-T.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.35 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model