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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 62

New York Giants 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 15-J.Stout punts 44 yards to NO 18, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown ran ob at NO 39 for 21 yards (52-A.Reese).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.30 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 62, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model