4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 49

New Orleans Saints 34 – New York Giants 18

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 17-R.Wright punts 32 yards to NYG 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 89-C.Jones pushed ob at NYG 27 for 10 yards (36-L.Styles).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.25 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model