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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 44

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-44-I.Stalbird.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.22 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.06 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP