Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 92

New York Giants 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

(:32) 15-J.Stout punts 66 yards to NO 26, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-B.Brown to NO 41 for 15 yards (54-M.Harrison; 46-Z.Barnes).

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.13 EP
70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 92, worth -5.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model