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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 16

New York Giants 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 34-D.Zvada 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.00 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model