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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 48
New York Giants 0 – New Orleans Saints 0
What Actually Happened
(8:09) 19-J.Winston left guard to NO 45 for 3 yards (20-P.Werner).
The Three Options
GO
+1.52 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.25 EP
- 31% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 48, worth -2.40 EP
KICK
-0.62 EP
- 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
- 59% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT
+0.11 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth +0.11 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
