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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 40

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 10-D.Carlson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model