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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 2

New Orleans Saints 3 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 18-B.Lance for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.85 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 2, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.86 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.03 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model